As the tiger awakens: Mohsin Hafeez on Chinese Power over and Stakes in the US Economy

TOO much of a good thing is bad. So is the case with the kind of democracy espoused by the political structure in America these days. The recent debt ceiling debate in the power corridors of Capitol Hill smacked of the worst kind of politics one has witnessed in the history of the developed world.

The Tea Party thought it fit to bring the country to the brink of the most disastrous scenario that was averted at the eleventh hour. The looming threat of the largest economy failing to keep its obligations was just as unfathomable to us here as it was spooky to the rest of the world. Notwithstanding the deal, and more because of the process that preceded the ‘signed, sealed and delivered’ moment, the debt rating of the US was lowered a notch to AA+ from its premium AAA rating.

In the last over 50 years, the debt limit has been raised at an average frequency of one and a half times every year, without as much as an eyelid being batted. Why it had to unravel the worst form of political showdown in the process this time is beyond comprehension and it does not hold up the high values of the greatest nation on earth, of American exceptionalism.

The US has borrowed with reckless abandon over the last several years.

The bubble finally burst in 2007, bringing with it the Great Recession. Even the brightest minds in the country missed the depth of the issue. Those who got it were snubbed, being labelled as ‘Keynesian’ as if it were a dirty word not fit for public utterance. The stimulus during the first few months of the Obama administration was cut down to size, with the result that it became only a half-baked effort. The Federal Reserve kept lowering the interest rates, and then deployed the silver bullet in the way of buying in billions, a combination of mortgage-backed and other US treasuries, to keep the interest rates from rising.

China is the largest creditor of the US, with about $1.3tr in US treasuries and agency securities. The Chinese found the US to be a safe haven, and holding US treasuries in large amounts also helped them mai ntain a tight relationship between the yuan and the US dollar. With the economic structure of China moving towards consumption, partially to cater to the rising middle class, at the expense of savings,

By Larry Elliott: Guardian London

A trader at the New York stock exchange. The last four years have seen five key stages of the global financial crisis, with more likely to come.

From sub-prime to downgrade, there have been five stages of the most serious crisis to hit the global economy since the Great Depression.

Phase one on August 9, 2007 began with the seizure in the banking system precipitated by BNP Paribas announcing that it was ceasing activity in three hedge funds that specialised in US mortgage debt.

This was the moment it became clear that there were tens of trillions of dollars worth of dodgy derivatives swilling round which were worth a lot less than the bankers had previously imagined. Nobody knew how big the losses were or how great the exposure of individual banks actually was, so trust evaporated overnight and banks stopped doing business with each other.

It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head but it did so on Sept 15, 2008 when the US government allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt. Up to that point, it had been assumed that governments would always step in to bail out any bank that got into serious trouble: the US had done so by finding a buyer for Bear Stearns while the UK had nationalised Northern Rock.

When Lehman Brothers went down, the notion that all banks were ‘too big to fail’ no longer held true, with the result that every bank was deemed to be risky. Within a month,