From theatre in Karachi to numbers in Senate

The upper house of parliament is slated to get 54 new members, giving the PPP an opportunity to significantly increase its present tally of 27 seats and perhaps even grab a majority in what will be a 104-member Senate from next year

WHILE the political theatre in Sindh and verbal sparring between the PPP and PML-N supremos are grabbing the headlines, behind the political scenes attention is quietly turning towards the battle for the Senate in March.

The upper house of parliament is slated to get 54 new members (re-election to 50 general, technocrat/ulema and women seats and four new, post-18th Amendment minority seats), giving the PPP an opportunity to significantly increase its present tally of 27 seats and perhaps even grab a majority in what will be a 104-member Senate from next year.

But the possibility is generating speculation that the PPP’s otherwise inexorable march towards a dominant position in Senate may be scuttled somehow.

Could the PML-N, with only a handful of Senate seats from Punjab at present, delay the Senate election and force early general election so that new provincial and national assemblies, more favourable towards the N-League, elect the next Senate cohort?Will the security establishment, ever wary of politicians consolidating power, countenance one half of parliament dominated by the PPP, perhaps the first step towards a kind of one-party state as its rivals flounder? Are the internecine warfare and ferocious mud-slinging in Karachi part of surreptitious efforts to forestall Senate elections?

What is clear is that part of the reason for the speculation building around the Senate elections is the upper chamber’s chequered history. “This is the first time since the ’70s, other than military dispensations, that the same assemblies will elect both halves of the Senate,” remarked Nayyar Hussain Bukhari, the PPP senator who is Leader of the House.

Mr Bukhari noted that the first Benazir Bhutto government was felled before Senate elections could take place, while her second government was only able to preside over Senate elections in 1994 before being ousted in 1996.

Perhaps the most notorious example of intervention ahead of a Senate election came during Nawaz Sharif’s second, ‘heavy mandate’ term. With the capture of the Senate only months away (the election was scheduled for March 2000) Sharif was on the threshold of forcing through controversial religiously hued legislative and constitutional changes when the Musharraf coup in late 1999 wrapped up the entire elected set-up.

PPP: game, set … match?

Now, what is at stake next March are institutional and psychological advantages for the PPP.

“Understandably, our political opponents would not like to see the PPP increase its strength in the Senate to cripple our ability to legislate,”
said Farhatullah Babar, spokesperson to the president.

According to Nayyar Bokhari, while the PPP is getting legislation passed with the help of coalition allies at present, the legislative process would become easier if the PPP’s ranks are swelled by 20-plus senators next March.

Privately, PPP leaders suggest a dominant position in the Senate would also be useful if the PML-N were to come to power after the next general election. In that case, the PPP could use its strength in the Senate to thwart the N-League’s legislative agenda until at least the next scheduled Senate election in 2015.

At the very least, according to PPP leaders, having their own chairman of the Senate, who is next in line to the presidency, would be a useful advantage.

There is a psychological victory at stake, too. If all goes to plan, the PPP will have an eye-catching set of constitutional offices to boast of: president, prime minister, senate chairman, speaker of the National Assembly. “The president’s vision is constitutional continuity and we will achieve that,” said Babar Awan.

Disruption unlikely?

Outwardly at least, the PPP is downplaying the possibility of any disruption to the Senate electoral timeline.

Commenting on the various options available to the PML-N, Babar Awan said: “If they try to dissolve the Punjab assembly, so what? Elections will have to be held anyway in 90 days. And in the first place, can they even get all their guys to agree to dissolution? And even if they do, the (Senate) elections from the other assemblies will not be affected.”

A senior Senate official said: “It’s never happened before, but if one provincial assembly isn’t able to elect senators next March for whatever reason all that will happen is there will be vacancies against those seats. The senate quorum is 25, from next March it will be 26, so senate business won’t be stopped.”

But Zain Sheikh, a constitutional expert, claimed that it would be “odd” if one of the federating units were not represented in the Senate and an argument could be made to keep the business of the Senate, or the legislative process, on hold until the Senate is properly constituted. “It would be a novel situation. The courts may have to decide,” Sheikh said. According to Sheikh, emergency rule in a province would not preclude the holding of Senate elections.

A new-look senate

The Senate’s composition will change significantly if the present assemblies elect the next 54 senators (12 from each province, 4 from Fata and 2 from Islamabad).

For one, the PML-Q will be all but wiped out. In 2009, it managed to secure only one seat, Chaudhry Shujaat from Punjab, and in March the six-year terms of its remaining 20 senators are set to expire.

The PML-N, with its minimal presence outside Punjab, will only marginally improve its present total of 7. It will likely pick up six seats, taking its tally to 12, given the expiry of Ishaq Dar’s term next March.

Publicly, at least, the PML-N is brushing aside the difficulties it could face in the Senate. According to Ahsan Iqbal said, “What will they (the PPP) do in the Senate when we win the next (general) election? Block legislation? They won’t have a majority on their own and do you think their allies will stick with them when they are in the opposition?”

Some in the PPP claim otherwise. “We will get 52,” said Babar Awan. A simple majority in a 104-member Senate remains a difficult prospect for the PPP, however.

Of the PPP’s 27 members at present, the terms of five senators will end next March (four from Sindh and Babar Awan from Punjab). If the PPP repeats its performance in the 2009 Senate elections, it should pick up 21 seats of the 50 up for re-election, taking its tally to 43.

But there are new opportunities for the PPP. Of the four new minority seats — one from each province — the PPP is sure to get one in Sindh and may be eyeing another in Balochistan, or even Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Then, the changes approved by President Zardari to the rules for Fata elections mean that four Fata Senate seats are likely to be contested for the first time on a party basis, giving the PPP a further chance to pick up seats. Across in Balochistan, where the PPP picked up three seats in 2009 and later wooed an independent to its side, the money-driven, freelance nature of politics means the PPP could arm-twist or bribe its way to an extra seat.

But the PPP may also have to accommodate political allies. In Punjab, Chaudhry Shujaat and the PML-Q will seek to get at least one seat and may, if necessary, press the PPP for support in the Punajb Assembly. “We may even get three of four,” deadpanned Chaudhry Shujaat, a sign of the tough negotiations to come perhaps. Shujaat is believed to command votes a few shy of the 47 needed to win a general Senate seat from Punjab.

Meanwhile, in Sindh, where in 2009 the MQM supported the PPP for Rehman Malik’s election to a seat reserved for technocrats, President Zardari’s determination to keep the MQM onboard and stave off a political crisis may force a senatorial concession to the MQM this time.

Given the complexities, political bargaining and potential pitfalls ahead, the PPP is being guarded in its public assessments.

Asked if the PPP is confident in the run-up to the Senate elections or whether the party is looking over its shoulder, Babar Awan said, “I have confidence in the people of Pakistan and that their will will ultimately prevail.”

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